from the inside, looking in

British media on Abe and post-Abe September 15, 2007

Gen writes:

“This is just embarrassing:
British newspapers call for dynamic PM, slam Abe’s record”

British newspapers were united Thursday in their calls for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party to appoint a reforming and dynamic leader following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s abrupt resignation on Wednesday.

…

All agreed Abe’s performance had been poor on the domestic front but commended his rapprochement with China and South Korea.

…

The Times was particularly strong in its criticism of Abe. It claimed that following his party’s defeat in recent upper house elections, he brought back the Old Guard into the Cabinet. This showed Abe was still tied to the old system of factions and political dynasties which has held Japan back previously. It states the fact that Aso is seen as a favorite to succeed Abe shows that the LDP has not really changed.

Well, if they want someone to continue the apparent thaw with China, Fukuda is the man (although he does look a bit like an orang-utang. I do like his wry sense of humour, and he certainly has more depth than Abe, not that that is a challenge).

Given my recent conjecture regarding Koizumi’s growing influence, it should be mentioned that Koizumi and Fukuda have a long history, and despite the apparent distance between them in recent years, Koizumi did his political apprenticeship under Takeo Fukuda, Yasuo’s father, and it should be no surprise to see Koizumi endorse Fukuda this time around. (Note however, that Koizumi’s sidekick Iijima and Fukuda don’t get along, hence Iijima tendering his resignation to Koizumi apparently in protest at Koizumi’s support of Fukuda)

As for The Times’ insightful commentary regarding Abe’s ties to the old system…. Duh. It would have been surprising to see Abe, from a blueblood political dynasty, do any different, regardless of rhetoric about moving on from the post-war regime. The only thing Abe/LDP and Ozawa/DPJ share is a wish to move to a two party system. That would be great if the two parties reflected genuine choices….

Of course, neither Aso or Fukuda are likely to be any different on this matter, both of them again being hereditary politicians.

Aso and Abe are of course distant relatives (Aso’s aunt married the cousin of Abe’s grandfather and great-uncle). Abe’s grandfather was PM Kishi, whose brother Eisaku Sato was also PM. Aso’s father-in-law was PM Zenko Suzuki, and both ex-PM Kiichi Miyazawa (Aso and Miyazawa’s cousin both married PM Suzuki’s children) and ex-PM Ryutaro Hashimoto (whose wife’s grandfather was the brother of Abe’s paternal grandmother) are also connected. That makes it 6 prime ministers in that (very) extended family.

Lest it be forgotten, Aso’s youngest sister married into the Imperial Household and is now Princess Nobuko. Another interesting fact- Taro Aso is roman catholic, due to the influence of his grandmother (whose influence also led to Shigeru Yoshida converting just prior to his death – Yoshida had a roman catholic funeral as well as a state funeral along more traditional Japanese lines), and his younger sister went to a finishing school in Kent with roman catholic ties….

Anyway, a choice quote from the Guardian piece:

“[…] Japan also needs a leader who can straddle the world stage.

Mr Aso is unlikely to be such a man. His favourite subject is talking about manga comic books.”

Really? Aso, whilst certainly prone to foot in mouth disease, and apparently not a man of tact or subtlety, at least in public, he has been Foreign Minister and has more international exposure than most Japanese politicians. He has a decent command of English (at least good enough for reading speeches).

He spent time at both Stanford and the London School of Economics as a postgraduate. He never did finish his masters degree at either. It is reputed that he was forced by his maternal grandfather to quit Stanford and move to the UK. His grandfather apparently visited him when Taro was at Stanford, and was distraught that he was picking up an American accent Apparently his grandfather told his mother to tell Taro to move to the UK immediately. LOL.

So, having moved on to the LSE, he again was ordered back to Japan before he could finish his studies.

Aso recalls this series of events in a recent speech.

Aso’s maternal grandfather is ex-PM Shigeru Yoshida, of course.

If Koizumi’s tenuous connections to the University of London are such a big deal and qualifies him as some sort of globally minded politician, Aso actually studying at Stanford and LSE as a postgrad certainly qualifies him to at least the same degree.

Anyway, none of this matters, because it seems that Fukuda is a certainty for the top job, unless someone can find some juicy scandal before the 23rd.

Was a financial scandal the reason for Abe’s departure? September 13, 2007

Local sources are saying that Shukan Gendai magazine will publish an article in this week’s edition (out on Saturday 15th) regarding financial transactions which are tantamount to tax evasion.

The story goes like this: When Shintaro Abe, also a prominent LDP politician during his time (he served ministereal posts at MAFF and MITI as well as the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and also served as LDP General Secretary), passed away in 1991, he donated his estate to his own political organization, thereby allowing his son (sons?) to evade paying inheritence tax. The amount of tax which would otherwise have been payable is quoted as being as much as JPY300M.

Whilst the incident happened too long ago for there to be any legal implications, because of the large sum of money involved, and the fact that this method of avoiding tax is only available to people who control their own political organizations, it is forseeable that such facts would lead to criticism of politicians using their special status, taking advantage of mechanisms available to a select few to avoid paying taxes like every other normal person.

Whilst donations are not forbidden per se, if the donation appears to have been made as a method of avoiding tax, it would have been a huge blow to an administration which has had more than its fair share of financial scandals. This may be the biggest (at least in terms of sum) of them all.

The really interesting question which arises from this is, how common a practice is this within political circles? Japanese media is so often just content with focusing on one specific target, even when practices are fairly widespread.

There are so many hereditary politicians in Japanese politics, I hope someone will have a good look at the financial circumstances of all of these political family businesses. (currently about 40% of LDP diet members are 2nd or 3rd generation politicians)

[I personally think this scandal, even if it proves to be true, would not have been, in isolation, enough to tip Abe over the edge. I think that he has been told by people like Koizumi and Mori, and also by GWB that they aren’t going to stand by him any longer. Note the change in GWB’s language at the APEC summit, compared to previous meetings where he was clearly more buddy-buddy with his lapdog Shinzo]

Breaking – Abe to resign September 12, 2007

This is totally unheard of. A PM resigning right after opening a new diet session, two days ago. If he performs true to form, he will sulk away without giving adequate explanation.
No doubt he should have gone, but the timing, as with so much about Abe, is woeful. I’m sure the LDP are livid. I suspect the DPJ would also have prefered to have kept on beating on Abe, rather than a new PM.

More after Abe’s press conference….