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Mixi IPO Day 2 September 15, 2006

Posted by fukumimi in Internet, IPO, IT, Japan.
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Trading on the 2nd day has started with sell orders outstripping buy orders at the start price of JPY3.15M, and the first transaction was executed at JPY2.95M.
The Mixi IPO was all over the news last night, with many analysts questioning the valuation (at yesterday’s close the valuation was JPY222B) as overpriced.

The critical coverage and a night’s reflection may have brought many potential buyers to their senses.

However, that does not necessarily mean that the stock will not go higher, several recent IPOs have seen strong short term movements after an initial case of cold feet.In the long run (through 6 months or so), Mixi will probably settle down at around the issue price, based on comparisons of PER with other stocks on the Japanese emerging markets exchanges.

The Mixi coverage on the media was funny to watch. Commentators were either knowingly or through ignorance, misrepresenting facts. The oft debated distinction between number of accounts and actual users was glossed over, and many were giving the impression that somehow Mixi was more trustworthy because users had to fill in a profile. Just a quick look would show that many users elect set up a profile which is limited in scope or downright fictional.

Still, the fact remains that Mixi has eyeballs, average user times and page views would indicate that it has top class advertising real estate.

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Comments»

1. ̾Ƚǡɱ̿̾ - September 18, 2006

mixiʥߥߥˤǤ̾͡Ƚǡɱ̿̾

mixiʥߥߥˤ줷ޤ͡⻲äƤޤ򤤤Ǥͧͤ͡ȤΥ᡼ˤȤäƤޤʤܤǡʤΩäƤޤߥ˥ƥʤ󤫸Ƥȡ֤ĤΤ˺ޤ

2. ken - September 18, 2006

It’s so hard to find people discussing the IPO rationally – thanks for giving us something.

I totally agree with you on two points – 1) that the user numbers are being glossed over, or are often totally innacurate. This article (http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/national/news/20060917p2a00m0na004000c.html) at Mainichi/MSN overstates the number of users by about 2 million.

In terms of the ‘privacy’ aspect. I think this is great marketing on Mixi’s part. It’s a big issue, as I’m sure you know. 2003 Law 57, and the issues with Winnie put people into a wild panic – which Mixi seems to be taking full advantage of.

It could backfire, obviously – someone’s bound to target them, and any data leak, no matter how small, would give a great shorting opportunity due to the panic likely to be caused by bad press.

But the media likes to read press releases verbatum and not question them, which means the public is rarely apt to do so. How many large media outlets have an IT correspondent on hand?

3. 1st-lfe NEWS - September 18, 2006

「mixi – ミクシィ」14日、東証マザーズに上場

ソーシャルネットワーキングサービス(SNS)の最大手、「mixi – ミクシィ」が、14日、東証マザーズに上場するようです。IT・ネット関連の大物有名企業「mixi – ミクシィ」の登場は…


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