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Mixi IPO Countdown (T-16 days and counting) August 29, 2006

Posted by fukumimi in Economy & Business, Finance, IT, Japan, Uncategorized.

I’m sure everyone’s counting down the days to the Mixi IPO (September 14th)…..

The TSE announced the tentative price range for the Mixi IPO, at between JPY1.3M and JPY1.55M. Seeing that every single IPO this year has seen offer prices at the upper limit of the announced range, we can say with a fair degree of confidence that Mixi will be offered at JPY1.55M per share. Expect the full 7100 shares to go on sale, including the 500 over allotment shares.

That is still going to mean incredibly slim odds for anyone who isn’t a heavy trading high net worth individual on good terms with their brokerage or an institutional investor to get their hands on even one single share as part of the IPO.

70,500 shares (total issued shares as of 9/14) at JPY1.55M puts the IPO valuation at JPY109.2B, or a shade under $1Billion. Financial market insiders are talking about the share price peaking at anywhere between JPY5M-8M, which would put the post-IPO frenzy peak valuation at between $3Billion and $5Billion……

Crazy? Well, not in the alternative reality that is the Japanese emerging markets exchanges. Remember, Drecom was up in $1B territory (now around $400M, PER still above 300 though…), and that company had approximately 1/10th the sales and earnings of Mixi….

Assuming that Mixi is around 6 million accounts, 70% of which are active (access within last month),  gives about 4.2M unique-users-per-month. Which values Mixi users at around $200 per user, which is significantly more than the per-user valuations seen in US M&A plays of community sites like MySpace or Flickr….



1. mixi関連Blogリンク集 - September 10, 2006



2. kenji mori - September 14, 2006


I can’t believe this, but according to Nikkei, the price is going up

3. fukumimi - September 14, 2006

Indeed it is, as predicted.
I don’t expect that there will be any transactions today, or perhaps even tomorrow. A peak valuation in the $3B+ range is looking like a real possibility.

I’ll probably post something after the markets close today.

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